1. The rider lifecycle
Five stages of competitive development
Each stage represents a distinct engagement pattern. Click through to see power curves, fitness development, and revenue. The ghost line shows the prior stage for comparison.
2. The dose-response curve
The threshold: 3 race sessions per week
A race session is any calendar day with at least one race. The relationship is perfectly monotonic: every increment in frequency produces a better outcome. No exceptions. No plateau.
At 2 sessions per week, the development rate crosses zero. At 3 sessions per week, development becomes decisively positive. This is the shape of a real physiological dose-response, not a statistical artifact.
3. Ability stratification
The finding holds at every ability level
W/kg tiers derived from the actual data distribution (quartile boundaries), not arbitrary bins. Year-round racers have the best development rate at every tier.
Below 3.4 W/kg, racing builds fitness. Above 3.4 W/kg, racing protects fitness. Everyone declines at elite levels, but year-round racers retain 84% of what seasonal non-racers lose.
4. The catch-up tax
Seasonal erosion vs year-round consistency
Seasonal racers spend half the year recovering what summer eroded. Year-round racers hold steady.
5. Retention
Competitive riders stay longer
Q1 cohort tracked over 12 months. Competitive riders retain at higher rates at every time horizon.
6. Demographics
Who races, and where
Gender
Geography
7. The business case
Three conversion funnels
8. Year-over-year trends
Platform progression 2022 to present
Cohort sizes by year show whether the platform is converting seasonal riders to year-round engagement and whether the competitive population is growing or shrinking.
9. Pivotal moments
Ecosystem disruptions timeline